Forex: EUR/USD capped at 1.3700, dips to fresh lows

FXstreet.com (Barcelona) - Euro reversal from 1.3935 high last week has extended to 13645 in Asia, with the pair weighed by renewed concerns about Greece, where the pair found support to bounce up at European opening, although, capped at 1.3700, the pair has turned lower again, dipping to fresh lows at 1.3630.

On the downside, the pair might find support at 1.3590 (Sept 14 low) and 1.3555 (Sept 13 low) before facing 1.34954 (Sept 12 low). On the upside, immediate resistance lies at 1.3700/05 (day highs), and above here, 1.3730/50 (broken trendline support) and 1.3795 (Gap from Sept 16 closing price).

On the long-term, the downtrend from 1.3940 remains active, heading to 1.3555 and 1.3240 says Stoyan Mihaylov, analyst at Deltastock: "The downtrend from 1.3940 is still intact, targeting 1.3555, en route to1.3240. Initial resistance is projected at 1.3750 and crucial on the upside is 1.3800."

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President Obama to seek a new tax rate for wealthy

The proposal would be included in the president's proposal 

for long term deficit reduction that he will announce Monday.

President Barack Obama is expected to seek a new base tax rate for the wealthy to ensure that millionaires pay at least at the same percentage as middle income taxpayers.

A White House official said the proposal would be included in the president's proposal for long term deficit reduction that he will announce Monday. The official spoke anonymously because the plan has not been officially announced.

Obama is going to call it the "Buffett Rule" for Warren Buffett, the billionaire investor who has complained that rich people like him pay a smaller share of their income in federal taxes than middle-class taxpayers.

Buffett wrote in a New York Times op-ed piece last month that he and his rich friends "have been coddled long enough by a billionaire-friendly Congress."

The measure would be in addition to £283 billion ($447 billion) in new tax revenue that Obama is seeking to pay for his short-term spending and tax cutting plan to jump start the economy.

Republican House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner said Thursday he would oppose tax increases to reduce the deficit. Boehner has urged Congress' deficit "supercommittee" to lay the groundwork for a broad overhaul of the U.S. tax code.

The panel has almost unlimited authority to recommend changes in federal spending and taxes and is working against a deadline of Nov. 23.

Boehner said the panel has "only one option, spending cuts and entitlement reforms," a reference to massive federal benefit programs such as Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid.

Any broad compromise that clears the bipartisan committee is almost certain to require Democratic agreement to savings from programs such as the Social Security pension program, along with Republican acquiescence to additional revenues, although any such trade-offs are rarely discussed openly until the last possible moment in negotiations.
Obama's new tax proposal was first reported by the New York Times

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EUR/USD likely to remain under pressure

EUR/USD is likely to remain under pressure and the US Dollar expected to remain bid during the week amid signs of waning market confidence according to the Brown Brothers Harriman, Global Currency Strategy Team. “The EUR/USD, in particular, is expected under pressure across as the combination of a potential Greek default, a shift in ECB posture, divisions between policy makers over how best resolve the ongoing debt crisis and funding worries about European banks continue to rattle markets.”

“With the CDS market pricing in an imminent default of Greece amid talks that the German government may be discussing an orderly restructure and press reports over the weekend suggesting that some large European financial institutions are facing the prospect of a credit downgrade due to their exposure to Greece, we suspect that the euro and broader market sentiment are likely to deteriorate further yet,” analysts affirmed at BBH and point out that a break of the EUR/USD below 1.3430 (February lows) could open the door for 1.3360 “and roughly a full retracement of the year’s entire move.”

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Fundamental Factors Behind Major Currencies

Every Forex-traded currency is influenced by  a range of internal macroeconomic conditions in its country of origin, as well as by and the global market situation. Economic Indicators (GDP growth, import/export trade accounts), social factors (unemployment rate, real estate market conditions) and the country’s central bank policy are the factors that determine the currency value in the foreign exchange market. Each one of the six major currencies has its particularities, and we are going to analyze the fundamentals that drive the currencies individually.
The US dollar (USD) is the most traded currency in the Forex market. It is also used as a measure to evaluate other currencies and commodities. The USD dominates the foreign reserves held by  all nations – it composes about 64% of the world reserves. Globally speaking, there are several fundamentals that drive the U. S. dollar. Since the largest amount of metallic commodities and the oil are mostly traded with prices denominated in USD, significant supply/demand fluctuations in these markets will have an immediate impact on the currency value, as it  has happened in 2008 when, largely due to the oil prices collapse, the EUR/USD reached 1.60 rate. The dollar also benefits from its status as a safe haven, as investors run to it when economic conditions deteriorate. As a result of a reserve currency status sometimes, USD sometimes profits from problems in the US itself. As for domestic factors, the Federal Reserve and its main interest rate has a tremendous influence on the currency. Decisions of the Fed about the benchmark rate are influenced by inflation, employment and GDP, thus the dollar is also influenced by these factors. Other important factors for USD are the trade balance and the national debt of the US. Usually, a higher trade balance deficit and a growing national debt reduce attractiveness of the US currency. Yet sometimes the opposite can happen as high trade deficit and debt may drive investors to the perceived safety of the dollar.
The euro (EUR) is by far the newest currency traded among the major pairs on Forex markets. It is used by 17 members of the European Union. The fundamental factors that move the euro are often based on the strongest economies using the new common currency, such as: France, Italy and, mainly, Germany. The main factors for performance of EUR are inflation of consumer prices and the target lending rate set by the European Central Bank. The countries’ indicators of the export trade and the unemployment rate also tend to have a high impact performance of the shared currency, considering that countries such as Germany are large exporters of manufacturing goods and technology. Europe still remains an energy dependant from the Russian gas and the Middle Eastern oil, making higher demands for these commodities to have a negative reflect on the EU currency. Another problem for the euro is the difference between its economies, made apparent by the debt crisis in 2011. It’s hard for the EU leaders in times of troubles to find solutions that are equally benefiting to the major economies and the weaker ones. EUR was considered as an alternative reserve currency to USD until the sovereign debt crisis. Unfortunately, the problems with the peripheral economies of the EU undermine the confidence in the euro.
The pound sterling (GBP) is the national currency of the United Kingdom, and the fundamental factors that move it are as complex and variable as the British economy itself and its global influence. The London can still be considered as a world’s financial capital and its commodity market plays a fundamental role in GBP trends. Inflation and GPD tend to influence the pound by the biggest degree, while the housing market is also important for Britain’s currency. Recently, the UK economy was constantly showing signs of weakness, reducing appeal of GDP. Despite that fact, traders sometimes use the sterling as an alternative for the euro in times when problems in the European Union become too severe. GBP also tends to be influence by political event, including elections. Usually, the currency reacts negatively to events that cause uncertainty, like the parliamentary elections in 2010 that resulted in hung parliament.
The Japanese yen (JPY) is the strongest and by far the most traded currency in the Asian market. Japan’s economy is mainly geared towards industrial exports. JPY is greatly valued by traders as a safer currency in periods when risk aversion sentiment hits markets, but also used by carry traders in times of risk appetite. Low interest rates in Japan allow such traders to borrow the currency and invest in countries with higher rates. Japan’s close proximity and tensions with China sometimes has a great impact on the yen. The problems for JPY are constant devaluation in Japan and interventions of the nation’s central bank. The Bank of Japan is concerned that excessive appreciation of the yen (and Japan’s currency tends to gain a lot at present because of economical uncertainty) may hurt nation’s export-oriented economy and, as a result, constantly attempts to weaken the Japanese currency. Deflation has hit Japan in early 1990s, following the burst of the real estate bubble in 1980s, and remains one of the greatest threats to Japan’s future. Growing number of old people compared to youths as well as increasing worries about the future makes it hard for the government to deal with the deflation.
Switzerland is a small country located in the European Alps, yet, its strong international trade and money influx, made the Swiss franc (CHF), one of the main currencies traded on Forex. CHF is another currency that is preferred during risk aversion as Switzerland’s robust economy and huge gold reserves (the country’s reserves is seventh biggest in the world, despite Switzerland’s small size) add to credibility of the currency. Similarly to JPY, CHF suffers from constant interventions of the central bank. The Swiss National Bank has gone as far as pegging CHF to EUR on September 6, 2011, thus creating constant downward pressure for the currency.
The Canadian dollar (CAD) is considered a “commodity currency” as Canada’s economy is export-driven. Most of its exports Canada sells to the USA, making the Canada’s economy and the currency dependent on the nation’s southern neighbor. The main export commodity is crude oil and CAD depends on the price moves of crude as well. The global economic growth and resulting advance of commodities tend to make CAD attractive to investors. On the other hand, problems with the global and the domestic economy can hurt CAD.

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